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Date Submitted: 09/10/2010 07:51 AM
Internet Trends
April 12, 2010
mary.meeker@ms.com / scott.devitt@ms.com / liang.wu@ms.com
Comments on mobile Internet include contributions from Katy Huberty, Simon Flannery, Ehud Geldblum, Nick Delfas, Naoshi Nema, James Dawson, Sean Gardiner, Patrick Standaert, Hiro Tanaka, Mark Lipacis, Navin Killa, Vinay Jaising, Yvonne Chow, Jasmine Lu, Bill Lu, Keon Han, Richard Ji, Adam Holt, Ben Swinburne
Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley Research as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures, refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of this report.
Internet Trends Outline
• •
Stock Market Update State of the Internet… Mobile Will Be Bigger Than Desktop Internet in 5 Years
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Mobile Internet Deep Dive
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Stock Market Update
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Stock Market = Often a Leading Indicator of Economic Growth
Russia +225% vs. 36-Month Low / India +120% / China +85% / USA (S&P500) +76%
300 2007 2008 2009 2010
250 Indexed Value (base = 100)
200
150
100
50
0 4/07
7/07
10/07
1/08
4/08
7/08
10/08
1/09
4/09
7/09
10/09
1/10
4/10
S&P 500 China Shanghai SE Composite Russia RTS Gold (NYM $/ozt)
NASDAQ Composite Index India SENSEX Crude Oil (NYM $/bbl) Japan Nikkei 225
4
Note: all indices start at a value of 100 on 4/5/07; data as of 4/5/10; Source: FactSet.
State of the Internet…Mobile Will Be Bigger Than Desktop Internet in 5 Years
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State of the Internet –
Usage Growth Remains Robust – 5 Countries = 48% of Users
Global Internet Stats in 2009E 1.8B Users, +13% Y/Y(1); 18.8T Minutes Spent, +21% Y/Y(2)
Russia 39MM users +13% Y/Y USA 238MM users +4% Y/Y
China 384MM...