Impact of Kindergartens on the Willingness to Have a Child

Introduction

According to the statistical agency of the KZ, the official population in KZ is 16. 197 million people and since 2003 the fertility rate in KZ was growing at steady rate equaling to 0.15-0.20 percent a year and in 2009 overall rate appeared to be 2.65, while in rural it was 2.61 and in urban area it was 2.73. According to the statistical agency, despite fertility rate is growing and we have natural increase of population, we also have positive migration balance, which is when more people are coming to Kazakhstan then going out from the country. Taking these into account, it is questionable what the dominant factor of the population growth is: immigration or natural population growth. Of course the overall increase of the population is good, but the people coming from outside is not the same as people born inside the country. As the government can influence both factors, in our model we would like to consider the policy which could influence on the fertility rate on micro or family level. To be precise we want to offer the kindergarten increase policy in the long run and would like to build the model on this policy.

Model description

The model consists of 2 parts:

a) just increase the number of the kindergartens and

b) increase the number simultaneously with tuition fee subsidy

In both stages the kindergartens should be supplied with the corresponding personnel to work and teach children there. But how to attract people to work there or to study for such kind of a profession is another policy which influences another cohort of people and it does not fall into consideration of our model.

First assumption of the model is that the couple is already married and they are standing in the front of a choice of having a child.

Let’s consider the first stage of the model – increase the number of the kindergartens in the long run. In the consideration of this stage of our model 3 types of women...