Lee Chatered Method Study

* Describe the main features of mortality trends, with particular reference to the mortality dynamics at adult and old ages.

Throughout the world, the human’s health condition was relatively rated as positive and average life expectancy doubled. Mortality rate kept declining in many, including all developed, countries.1 In general, mortality rate is a continuous function, which declined in along with time due to many factors. Different nations were recorded having different mortality rate, and also various rate of declining. This was mainly related to:

* Increase in health care which for example significantly reduced the infant mortality rate;

* Living and environmental conditions improve, resulting higher life expectancy;

* No major pandemic or natural disaster;

* Country is not in major or civil war, when comparing with ancient time.

There are several figures and graphs would be allowed to use to explain the mortality trends:

* Survival Curve

* Death Curve

* Mortality Rate

* Mortality Profile

To discuss the mortality trends in a more detailed manner, I chose to investigate the mortality data for USA between 1933 and 2006, which was recorded by ‘The Human Mortality Database.’

* Justify why the mortality rate should be taken as a function of both age and time.

* Describe a projection model, explaining how it can be justified in face of mortality trends; (The answer was being extended by referencing ‘The Lee-Carter Method for Forecasting Mortality, with Various Extensions and Application’ – Lee. R. D)

Introduction with background

In this section, I will draw your attention on how to forecast the mortality rates using Lee-Carter model. This model was invented by Lee and Carter in 1992; it was an innovated method for long-run forecasts of the level of mortality, as well as the age pattern. The primary idea was to allow for stochastic nature of mortality, and it has become one of the most influential models in...