Introduction to Decision Making

Introduction to Decision Making

Course Description

 This course deals with analysis of decision-making

situations in business environment using probabilities, inventory, forecasting, linear programming, and structured linear programming as applied in business processes. This course will equip the students with the necessary skills and knowledge of the different Management Science/Operation Research techniques, which will develop their decision-making capabilities. Completion and mastery of the course is a great tool in decision making for future business executives.

Course Outline

         

Introduction Probability and Probability Distribution Decision Analysis Utility and Game Theory Forecasting Linear Programming Transportation and Assignment Problems Inventory Models Waiting Line models Simulation

Over View (Need for Good Decision)

Managers

A Manager Should Be a Good Decision Maker

Success

Increasing competition Changing markets Changing customers requirements More complex business environment Complex information needs and system Increased uncertainty Larger error costs

Problem Solving and Decision Making

Problem solving can be defined as the process of identifying a difference between the actual and the desired state of affairs and then taking action to resolve the difference.

Over view (Decision Making Process)

SCIENTIFIC METHOD OF SOLVING PROBLEM

Observation Define the Problem Formulation of Hypothesis Experimentation

Verification

Over view (Decision Making Process)

Qualitative Analysis Decision Making

Structuring the Problem

Define the problem Identify the alternatives Determine the criteria

Analyzing the Problem

Evaluate the alternatives Choose an alternative

Quantitative Analysis

Evaluate the results

Implement the decision

Qualitative analysis is based primarily on the manager’s judgment and experience; it includes the manager’s intuitive “feel” for the problem and is more an...