Inductive and Deductive Reasoning

AMERICAN MILITARY UNIVERSITY

INDUCTIVE AND DEDUCTIVE REASONING

Abstract:

Williams

B.A. Intelligence Studies Program

INTEL300Research Methods for Intelligence Studies, INTL300I003

27 November 2010

“Unfortunately, for commanders in the field, for intelligence analyst at their desks, and for intelligence researchers in general – no rules to follow no exercises to “strengthen” one’s mental faculties so that correct generalizations necessarily follow observations.”[1] For our fourth week’s discussion assignment, our class was asked to explain the difference between inductive and deductive reasoning. In my response to my assignment question, I will identify the differences and applications of inductive and deductive reasoning, including examples from within the intelligence and/or international arena. Inductive and deductive reasoning are critical to the pre-hypotheses and the problem definition stage of research analysis, which distinguishes between two basic arguments: inductive and deductive. “Induction and deduction are pervasive elements in critical thinking. They are also somewhat misunderstood terms. Arguments based on experience or observations are best expressed inductively, while arguments based on laws or rules are best expressed deductively. Most arguments are mainly inductive.”[2]

Induction reasoning is defined as moving from the specific to the general; arguments based on experience and/or observation. As an analyst within the intelligence community inductive reasoning is a process of arriving at a conclusion based on a set of observations, not a valid method of proof. An inductive argument is an argument in which it is thought that the premises provide reasons supporting the probable truth of the conclusion. In an inductive argument, the premises are intended only to be so strong that, if they are true, then it is unlikely that the conclusion is false. Inductive reasoning is when you look at examples of a thing and conclude that...