Decision of Uncertainty

Decision of Uncertainty

Donald Godfrey

August 23, 2010

QNT 561

Richard La Valley

University of Phoenix

MBA

Decision (Buy or not to Buy)

Everyday I make decisions in my daily life. When I make these decisions I never really think about the probability of the decision working out or that I am using statistics at all. Well, I was faced with the decision to find a house in Shreveport close to what I could get in Houston. My company relocated me back to Shreveport from Houston and per the statistics and survey done during our current economy; I was leaving the second best housing market in the United States. What I was faced with is finding a house comparable to what I could get in Houston while moving to Shreveport. One may think that this is a simple decision, but you have to keep in mind that the price of the house is going to play a big part in this because it has to be the house I want for what I feel is a reasonable price comparable to what I could get in Houston.

Research

As I make this decision I have to do some research to help me make this decision with some insight. I first looked at the HAR (Houston Association of Realtors) to give me an idea of what type of houses I could get for my money in Houston. When I got to Shreveport I first looked at several websites such as Century 21 of Shreveport and Remax to get an idea of what the Shreveport housing market had to offer compared to what I was looking for. I then found me a realtor to help compile me a list of houses to compare. What is the probability of me finding a house that is comparable to what I could find in Houston? This is interesting considering the housing market in Shreveport, LA cost two times more than in Houston.

With all this data I was hoping to find the house that I wanted using all of this statistical data and hoping the probability would be great for me to find a great house for a great price. Let’s say that I am looking for a two story brick house with at least 2500 square...