Aarkstore - World Lng Market Forecast 2016-2020

World LNG Market Forecast 2016-2020

A Shift in Focus for the Global LNG Business

Capital expenditure (Capex) on Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facilities has risen substantially in recent years, due mainly to the growth in the global economy which has been driving demand for natural gas. This trend is expected to continue with total spending on global LNG facilities expected to reach $241bn between 2016 and 2020. This represents a 34% increase compared to the preceding five-year period.

Global LNG Capex has been dominated by Australasia and Asia in recent years, however, over the forecast period all regions are expected to experience positive growth, except for Australasia where the LNG construction boom looks to be coming to an end, as the country prepares to enter a new production phase. The US now has vast potential as an LNG exporter. However, the approval process for onshore projects remains slow and will limit the growth rate of LNG expenditure in the region over 2016-2020. In the US there are 20 LNG export terminals proposed for the future. Of this 20 proposed, 11 export terminals were originally planned for start-up between 2016 and 2020. However, DW has taken a conservative view and anticipates only six will be built over this period. DW expects North America to become a significant market player by the end of the forecast period.

The global LNG Capex outlook to 2020 is characterised by this regional change in focus, in addition to a weaker projected year for expenditure in 2016. This is a result of a pause in commitments to new LNG projects as demand growth in Asia has weakened and gas prices have slumped.

By far the largest proportion of the total spend will be attributed to liquefaction projects, where the gas is cooled and condensed to a much smaller size. Worldwide spending in this segment is forecast to total $160bn over the next five years, an increase of 33% over the hindcast period total.

The World LNG Market Forecast 2016-2020 examines...