South Africa Network Investment Industry 2015 Market Size, Share, Trends and Forecast 2015

In 2015, South Africa will generate estimated telecom revenue of $12.2bn. Over the next five years, Pyramid Research expects total market revenue in South Africa to decrease at a CAGR of -1.5% in dollar terms to reach $11.3bn in 2020. Currency exchange rate volatility will adversely impact revenue growth over the forecast period. Nevertheless, we believe South Africa still has much potential for growth following planned investment in LTE network coverage and expected undersea cables. By 2020, we expect voice services to contribute 14 percentage points less to overall revenue. Data will emerge as the fastest-growing segment, its share of total revenue going from 30.6% in 2015 to 42.0% in 2020. The proliferation of smartphones over the past few years has strongly contributed to boosting data revenue.

Key Findings

In 2015 South Africa will generate estimated revenue of US$12.2bn, 4.8% less than the previous year in dollar terms. Mobile is the dominant segment, generating $9.0bn in 2015. However, we expect mobile voice revenue will decrease at a CAGR of -6.6% in dollar terms over the next five years due to competition and MTR cuts.

Pyramid Research expects to see overall service revenue decline at a -1.5% CAGR from 2015 to 2020. Gradual rand depreciation will affect revenue growth prospects over the forecast period. In local currency, we expect overall service revenue to grow at a compound rate of 2.1% over the next five years. The fixed/mobile revenue split will remain stable over the forecast period.

Over the next five years, operators should seize opportunities in multiplay offers and IPTV services. Vendors have an opportunity to support operators in the expansion of network coverage over the near term.

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Synopsis

“South Africa: Network Investment, FTTx Deployment and...