Managment Information System

MANAGEMENT INFORMATION SYSTEM 613

FALL 2010

Question 1:

Answer 1 a): Expected mean number of no-shows

Expected mean number of no-shows is equal to 7.17 passengers.

Exhibit 1: Forecast indicating the expected mean number of no shows

Answer 1b):

Expected mean number of passengers who board the plane is equal to 112.65.

Exhibit 2: Forecast chart indicating the expected mean number of passengers who board the plane

Calculation of 95% confidence interval for the expected mean number of passengers who board the plane:

In order to calculate the confidence interval, we used the CONFIDENCE function with the inputs of alpha, mean standard error and sample size of 0.05, 0.34 and 1000 respectively.

Therefore based on the calculation conducted on excel spreadsheet, we calculated the upper and lower limit of the interval.

Confidence Interval |

Confidence Interval | 0.95 |

Alpha | 0.05 |

+/- Range | 0.0210 |

Upper Limit | 112.68 |

Lower Limit | 112.63 |

Exhibit 3: Confidence Interval Calculation for expected mean number of passengers boarding the plane

This means that we are 95% confident that the true population mean of number of passengers who board the plane on a daily basis will be somewhere between 112.63 and 112.68; but since this is discrete units we are 95% certain that 112 people will board the plane.

Exhibit 4: Distribution of sample means

Answer 1c): Probability that 125 or more passengers board the plane

Exhibit 5: Steps from Crystal Ball to obtain probability of 125 or more passengers boarding the plane

Exhibit 6: Steps from Crystal Ball to obtain probability of 125 or more passengers boarding the plane

Exhibit 7: Forecast chart showing the probability of 125 or more passengers boarding the plane

Therefore the probability of 125 or more passengers boarding the plane equals to 16.30%, as indicated in the forecast chart in Exhibit 7.

Calculation of 90% confidence interval for the probability that number of...