Population Explosion

POPULATION EXPLOSION: WORRY AT THE RIGHT TIME

JAMIL AHMAD

July 1, 2008

Pakistan’s current predicament------poverty, malnutrition, electricity, polluted water, ill health, and land degradation------- if to be addressed on one platform is: ‘population explosion’. A country of 163.3 million population, Pakistan is ranked 6th most populous country in the world, a shift from 9th most populous country in 1994 when an estimated population was 126 million. The country’s population is estimated a double by the year 2045 making it 4th most populous country in the world if it continues to grow at present growth rate of 1.8 percent.

Average household size in Pakistan is 6.8. Due to increased population density and migration to urban areas 24.33 percent households are forced to live in a single room while 69.05 percent have two to four living rooms and only 6.62 percent of households have five and more living rooms in their dwelling units. Most of the households do not have access to clean drinking water and 27 percent households do not have any toilet; and water and sanitation related diseases are responsible for 60 percent of child deaths in Pakistan. Thus, doubling in population would entail twofold pressure on an already deficient infrastructure.

Crude birth rate (CBR) of more than 30 is considered high. Countries committed to sustainable population growth have reduced it to as low as 7.6 per 1000 population as in China after adoption of one child policy, 14.0 in United States and 23.0 in India. The crude birth rate in Pakistan is estimated at 27.2 per 1000 population which is more than top three highly populated countries mentioned above.

The age structure of a population affects a nation's key socioeconomic issues. In Pakistan 36.3 percent of population is between the age of 0-14 years, 59.4 percent of total population is between the age of 15-64 years and 4.3 percent are 65 years and over. Decline in fertility rate and improvement in life expectancy is...