Human Resourse Management

UNIT 2 DEMAND AND SUPPLY FORECASTING:

METHODS AND TECHNIQUES

Structure

Objectives

Introduction

Manpower Forecasts; Issues and Objectives

L2.1 Conceptual Issues

2.2.2 Objectives of Manpower Forecasts

Types of Manpower Forecasts; Micro and Macro Forecasting

Macro Forecasting

Micro Forecasting

Manpower Forecasting Techniques

Manpower Supply Forecasting

Supply Forecasting Techniques

Database for Manpower Forecasting

Let Us Sum Up

Clues to Answers

2.0 OBJECTIVES

After reading this Unit, you should be able to understand the:

need for forecasting manpower demand and supply in hospitality industry,

types of forecasts for manpower demand and supply,

methodologies of manpower demand and supply forecasting at the maoro and micro

levels, and

database required for manpower demand and supply forecasting at the macro and

micro levels.

2.1

INTRODUCTION

In spite of the universally accepted idea that a tourist not just buys the tourism product

but also in a way buys the service skills and qualities of a wide range of humans working

in hotels and other allied fields and in return who would contribute to the total holiday

experience of tourists, 111 many countries, we see that the growth and development of

tourism is adversely affected either due to lack of trained human resources or poor

quality in service arid so on. The reasons for this is rightly assessed by Tom Baum

(1993) who has pointed out that there is a "tendency to develop human resource

policies, initiatives and remedial programmes that are reactive to what is currently

happening rather than proactive to what is likely to occur." He further stresses that,

"as a general axiom, effective human resource strategies require considerable lead

time in order to support tourism development and, ideally, should be in place well

before the bulldozers and diggers move in".

This brings to fore the issue of manpower forecasting of both demand as well as supply.

In this Unit we will discuss...