The Impact of Diabilities on Health Care Costs

The number of Americans with diabetes will nearly double in the next 25 years, and the costs of treating them will triple, according to a new report.

The figures, in a University of Chicago report released Friday, add fuel to the congressional debate regarding reining in the cost of health care.

By 2034, 44.1 million Americans will be living with diabetes -- nearly twice the current number of 23.7 million, according to the report, published in the December issue of the journal Diabetes Care. About 90 percent of those with diabetes have type 2, a version of the condition that develops over time.

Accounting for inflation, the direct medical cost of treating them will rise from $113 billion annually to $336 billion, the report says.

Current health care proposals in Congress attempt to slow the growth of spending on chronic diseases such as diabetes by funding programs to prevent disease in the first place, and by offering incentives for insurers and medical providers to encourage early treatment through so-called "accountable care organizations."

In those organizations, doctors might be paid a flat fee to treat a diabetes patient for a year, with bonuses if they meet certain benchmarks of patient health.

The staggering numbers in the new paper dwarf potential savings that have lately been discussed. For example, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius earlier this month released a report urging improvements in diabetes care. If the most successful statewide programs for controlling diabetes could be duplicated nationwide, it estimates, annual savings from reducing hospitalizations and treatment for various complications would total $216 million.

The numbers are disturbing, said Dr. Elbert Huang, an assistant professor of medicine at the University of Chicago and lead author of the report. But he said he considers the predictions "very conservative" because they don't account for the growing proportion of overweight children and...