The Shoal

Analysis: Beijing’s tough line vs. Manila in Panatag Shoal standoff

DAVID LAGUE, Reuters May 25, 2012 9:52pm

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HONG KONG—Alongside an armada of paramilitary patrol vessels and fishing boats, China has fired off a barrage of historical records to reinforce its claim over a disputed shoal near the Philippines in the South China Sea.

While this propaganda broadside makes it clear Beijing will take a tough line with Manila as a standoff over Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal continues into a seventh week, the exact legal justification for China's claim and the full extent of the territory affected remain uncertain, according to experts in maritime law.

Like most of its claims to vast expanses of the resource-rich and strategically important South China Sea, Beijing prefers to remain ambiguous about the details, they say.

This allows the ruling Communist Party to demonstrate to an increasingly nationalistic domestic audience that it can defend China's right to control a swathe of ocean territory.

And, it avoids further inflaming tensions with neighbors who are already apprehensive about China's growing military power and territorial ambition.

"This ambiguity serves China's domestic purpose which is to safeguard the government's legitimacy and satisfy domestic public opinion," said Sun Yun, a Washington DC-based China foreign policy expert and a former analyst for the International Crisis Group in Beijing.

Potential flashpoint

Rival claims to territory in the South China Sea are one of the biggest potential flashpoints in the Asia-Pacific region.

China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei all have territorial claims across a waterway that provides 10 per cent of the global fisheries catch and carries $5 trillion in ship-borne trade. Half the world's shipping tonnage traverses its sea lanes.

The United States, which claims national interests in the South China Sea, recently completed naval exercises...