Methods of Forecasting:

They are:

1. Survey methods

2. Statistical methods

1. Survey Methods:

Survey methods help us in obtaining information about the future purchase plans of potential buyers through collecting the opinions of experts or by interviewing the consumers. These methods are extensively used in short run and estimating the demand for new products. There are different approaches under survey methods. They are

• Consumers interview method:

Under this method, efforts are made to collect the relevant information directly from the consumers with regard to their future purchase plans. In order to gather information from consumers, a number of alternative techniques are developed from time to time. Among them, the following are some of the important ones.

- Survey of buyer’s intentions or preferences: Under this method, consumer-buyers are requested to indicate their preferences and willingness about particular products. They are asked to reveal their ‘future purchase plans with respect to specific items.

- Experts Opinion Poll: In this method, the experts on the particular product whose demand is under study are requested to give their ‘opinion’ or ‘feel’ about the product. These experts, dealing in the same or similar product, are able to predict the likely sales of a given product in future periods under different conditions based on their experience. If the number of such experts is large and their experience-based reactions are different, then an average-simple or weighted –is found to lead to unique forecasts. Sometimes this method is also called the ‘hunch method’ but it replaces analysis by opinions and it can thus turn out to be highly subjective in nature.

- Direct Interview Method: Under this method, customers are directly contacted and interviewed. Direct and simple questions are asked to them.

i. Complete enumeration method:Under this method, all potential customers are interviewed in a particular city or a region.

ii. Sample survey method or the consumer...