China Report

ISI

International Strategy and Investment

Donald Straszheim

Head of China Research Senior Managing Director ISI Group

January 11-15, 2010

11111 Santa Monica Blvd., Suite #1480 Los Angeles, CA 90025

Phone. 310-473-4051 Fax. 310-473-6718 Mobile. 310-293-1322 dstraszheim@isigrp.com

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Straszheim Handout

TABLE OF CONTENTS

P3 P4 P5 P6 P7 P8 P9 P10 P11-12 P13-14 P15-16 P17 P18 P19 P20-21 P22 P23-24 P25 P26 P27 P28-30 P31 P32-33 P34 P35 P36 P37 P38 P39 P40 P41-42 P43-47 P48 P49-50 P51 P52 P53-54 P55 P56 P57 P58 -

China Research

Bullets - Short-term Outlook Bullets - Long-term Fundamentals Bullets - Industrial and Sectors Bullets - Financial Sector (ex Equities) Bullets - A Little Background to Remember Bullets - Equity – 1 Bullets - Equity – 2 Bullets - Energy GDP and Forecast Meltdown and 2010 GDP and Global CPI - Consumer Prices Other Inflation PPI - Producer Prices Monetary Policy Currency, Forex International Trade Urbanization and Migration IVA - Industrial Value Added Fixed Asset Investment Consumers and Consumption Autos Indicators and Surveys PMI – Purchasing Managers Index Shanghai Equities More Equities Hang Seng Index China Equities in the U.S. QDII QFII Hong Kong Equities, Economy Energy Steel Non Ferrous Taiwan Macau India and China India and Japan Demographics China Demographics Japan and China Vietnam

310.473.4051 1/8/2010

Donald Straszheim dstraszheim@isigrp.com

ISI Group

China — Short-term Outlook

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China Research

Economy held up world’s best in 2008-09 meltdown. We see GDP accelerating 2009Q4 and 2010Q1. Short-term prospects still #1 in world. Massive (too much) stimulus. Money tighter in 2010H1. CPI up sharply thru June 2010. No currency revaluation pre 6/30/10. China trade-friction rising; is deadly serious. Still, China blow-up economic fears are wrong. Don’t be afraid to buy Chinese SOE equities. · G2 member. Beijing’s G2 goal achieved. But now China is subject to external events, while Beijing...