Forecasting Method

Readers will be provided a link to download the software

and Excel files that are used in the book after payment.

Please visit http://www.xlpert.com for more information on

the book. The Excel files are compatible with Excel 2003,

2007 and 2010.

Chapter 1: Basic Forecasting Methods

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Moving Average – Forecast a country farm production

Exponential Smoothing – Forecast a country farm production

Holts Method – Forecast a winter clothing sales

Holts Winters – Forecast fishing rods sales

Chapter 2: ARIMA / Box Jenkins

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Arima Modeling

Subjective Method

Example 1: Daily Sales Forecasting

Objective Method

Example 2: Forecast daily electricity production

Chapter 3: Monte Carlo Simulation

Example 1: Coin Tossing

Example 2: Sales Forecasting

Example 3: Modeling Stock Prices

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Chapter 4: K Nearest Neighbors

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Example 1: KNN for classification of home ownership

Example 2: KNN for time series prediction with stock market data

Example 3: Cross Validation With MSE

Chapter 5: Neural Network With MS Excel

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Example 1: Credit Approval Model

Example 2: Sales Forecasting

Example 3: Predicting Stock Prices (DJIA)

Example 4: Predicting Real Estate Value

Example 5: Classify Type Of Flowers

Chapter 6: Markov Chain with MS Excel

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Example 1: Predict delivery time for a courier company

Example 2: Predict brand loyalty of soft drink customers

Chapter 7: Bayes’ Theorem with MS Excel

Example 1: Predict rainy or sunny day

Example 2: Predict stock market trend

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Appendix A

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How to use nn_Solve

Appendix B

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Simple Linear Regression For Forecasting

Appendix C

How to access Excel Solver 2007 and 2010

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Chapter 1:

Basic Forecasting Methods

Introduction

Forecasting is the estimation of the value of a variable (or set of variables) at some future

point in time. In this book we will consider some methods for forecasting. A...