Busness Uncertainty

Uncertainty Paper

Northern Manufacturing Company

Submitted by

Betty Yates

University of Phoenix

Dr. Jud Faurer

June 21, 2010

Research and Business Decisions

The purpose of this paper is to bring attention through research and probability the benefits of implementing a total gym within the Northern Manufacturing Company to prevent work lost due to the growing number of employees contracting the common cold. Research and possibility has stated that exercise on a daily basis will decrease the growing number of employee’s absenteeism due to the common cold. The Company is trying to formulate and analyze the uncertainty of this problem. In trying to solve this growing problem, management will attempt to utilize the Bayes Theorem concepts in reaching a business decision for the benefit of the company. Not knowing precisely if the statistical analysis and rationale will create a degree of accuracy as to the effects of the data, this paper will give management an estimation of accuracy that will influence the decision-making process.

Background

The Northern Manufacturing Company located in Aurora Illinois, founded in 2007, by Daniel B. Hunt. Northern Manufacturing employs 1000 employees, and specializes in the production of water-proof USB drives. It is the only producer of water-proof USB drives in the United States. Northern Manufacturing has a demanding workload because of the growing demand for water-proof USB drives. Production rate is slow due to the high technology in producing them and have little lead way in the disruption in production.

Business Situation

Northern Manufacturing Company in the past has encountered a growing decrease in production in the fall and winter months due to the absent of employees contacting the common cold. In an effort to resolve this problem management has suggested the implementation of a total gym for employee’s use. The concept came about as management notice by working out in their private gym that...