Scoring Trends in the Third Period in the Nhl

Scoring Trends in the NHL

Scoring Trends in the Third Period in the NHL

Jack Davis

Simon Fraser University

Joint work with Dr. Paramjit Gill, University of British Columbia - Okanagan

Scoring Trends in the NHL Outline

Background Questions and Hypotheses Modelling Scoring Rate Rolling Truncated Exponential Model Effect of Scoring Trends on Ties. Proportion of games tied GLM Poisson model Diagonally Inflated Double Poisson

Scoring Trends in the NHL Background

Three eras based on regular season payoff structure:

Scoring Trends in the NHL Background

Three eras based on regular season payoff structure: Zero-Sum Era (Up to 1998-99) 5 minute OT 2pts for a win, 1pt for a tie. 0 for a loss

Scoring Trends in the NHL Background

Three eras based on regular season payoff structure: Zero-Sum Era (Up to 1998-99) 5 minute OT 2pts for a win, 1pt for a tie. 0 for a loss OT Loss Era (Up 1999-2000 to 2003-04) 5 minute OT 2pts for a win, 1pt for a tie, 1pt for an OT loss.

Scoring Trends in the NHL Background

Three eras based on regular season payoff structure: Zero-Sum Era (Up to 1998-99) 5 minute OT 2pts for a win, 1pt for a tie. 0 for a loss OT Loss Era (Up 1999-2000 to 2003-04) 5 minute OT 2pts for a win, 1pt for a tie, 1pt for an OT loss. Shootout Era (2005-06 until now) 5 minute OT followed by a shootout 2pts for a win, 1pt for an OT or shootout loss.

Scoring Trends in the NHL Questions and Hypotheses

We ask two questions: 1. Has the scoring rate in the 3rd period conditional on situation changed?

Scoring Trends in the NHL Questions and Hypotheses

We ask two questions: 1. Has the scoring rate in the 3rd period conditional on situation changed? 2. Has the probability of a game going to overtime changed?

Scoring Trends in the NHL Modelling Scoring Rate Rolling Truncated Exponential Model

N = Number of intervals sampled. Truncation at t ∗ = 300. m = Times out of N an interval ends early because of a goal. ti = Length (seconds)...