Quat 1

For QAT1, Task 309.3.1-01, I was made to create a Monte Carlo simulation. A Monte Carlo Simulation is a way of using random variables in order to simulate conditions to determine the probabilities surrounding certain outcomes. Basically, this is a way to run real life trials within the confines of a simulation.

The first thing that I did was to assign the chance percentages to real numbers. In order to accomplish this, I made a chart with the chance percentages listed, and the concurring variables that would represent these percentages. All chance percentages involving a simulation must add up to 100%, so the corresponding variables must represent the same. How was this done? As you can see in the directions, the materials were broken down by these chance percent’s: 18, 23, 32, and 27. To attach the variables for 18, I used the first 18 variables, or 1-18. The next chance percent was 23. I added 23 onto the first 18 variables so that the next 23% were represented by 19-41, and so on and so forth until all chance percentages were represented by corresponding variables.

Every chance percentage represented a monetary value, which also means that every set of variables attached to the chance percentage represented the monetary value attached to the chance percentage. If you notice, I included a column to keep a running total to ensure accuracy. Since this was a manual exercise, I did the calculations manually. I also could have included a formula (=SUM()) to manually calculate the sums and ensure they equaled out to 100. Now, just a note, these percentages and values are based on real life numbers so as to make the simulation as accurate as possible.

Since this was done manually, I did note have to use a formula to show random numbers because they were already given. I simply looked to the chart, saw the variable percentage that was represented by the random number, and then plugged in the monetary value attached to that particular number. A simple =AVE() formula...