China and Stability

Western attitudes toward China tend to oscillate between two extremes, often with confusing rapidity. Not too long ago China was widely portrayed as an emerging military and economic threat to the West. Its total economic output was projected to surpass that of the United States in two decades. Its military modernization was expected to provide China the capability to project its power far beyond its borders (and the recent Cox report on nuclear espionage has revived those concerns). And its authoritarian regime was supposed to be able to retain its grip on power for a long time. Nowadays, however, the speculation about China's future has generally inclined toward pessimism. The influential British magazine The Economist openly speculated about the break-up of China in its last issue of 1998. Not long before that, the same publication ran a cover editorial opining about the imminent collapse of the Chinese economy. And in a speech delivered in April of this year, President Bill Clinton warned of the dangers of an unstable China which failed to reform. Even within China, signs of danger and nervousness abound. Arguably, the Chinese government now faces the most severe challenge since the Tiananmen Square demonstrations a decade ago. Unemployment is rising at a frightening rate. Several key anniversary dates fraught with symbolic and real political dangers (such as the 50th anniversary of the People's Republic, the 10th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square crackdown, and the 40th anniversary of the uprising in Tibet) have prompted the government to maintain a tight watch over the country's tiny dissident community lest something akin to the 1989 movement break out again. In my judgment, the current pessimism about China's short- term prospects is as exaggerated as the previous optimism about its long-term economic outlook. In fact, China is likely to retain its short-term political stability despite many signs of potential turmoil, but will face rising instability if...