Powertrain Outlook India

Powertrain Outlook - India

Suraj Ghosh, Senior Analyst South Asia Powertrain Forecasts

February 2014

Presentation to Mann & Hummel, INDIA

Contents

• Indian Market Outlook • Key OEMs Production share • Production by Global Segments

• New Trends

• Powertrain Production – Domestic vs. Imported • Evolution of Powertrain Technology • Drivers of Technology Changes

• Emission Norms

• CO2/EV Mobility • Powertrain Technologies • Alternative Fuels – Scenario • Conclusion

Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2

Indian Market Outlook

Vehicle Production

7 6 5 Millions 4

Vehicle Sales

6.44 5.45 4.97 4.38 5.69 6.03

5 4 6

5.70

5.16

4.77

4.42 3.97 3.49 3.01 3.13

Millions

3.60 3.80

3.65

3.85

3.25

3 2

2.74

3.01

3.26

3 2 1 0 CY CY CY CY CY CY CY CY CY CY CY 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

1

0

CY 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 CY CY CY CY CY CY CY CY CY CY

• Vehicle Production declined for the first time in last 10 years frame due to weak domestic sales demand. • Rising fuel prices, higher interest rates, high inflation, low consumer sentiments, low business confidence and an uncertain political scenario could be attributed for this decline.

• Nonetheless, growth is expected to pick up in the mid to long term by several expansion plans and new entry of OEMs like Datsun, Isuzu, Great Wall etc.

• We expect Indian sales to reach 5.7Mn units by 2020 growing at a CAGR of about 10%.

Copyright © 2010 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 3

Key OEMs Production Share

Others Suzuki Honda 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20%

16.1% 5.9% 12.2% 7.0% 11.9% 14.0% 8.1% 11.1% 14.9% 7.8% 10.1% 14.5% 8.0% 9.4% 13.6% 5.8% 3.2% 7.9% 9.6% 13.4% 5.9% 7.4% 9.3% 7.5% 9.4% 11.3% 6.1% 4.7% 2.8% 13.4% 6.2% 3.4% 12.7%

Volkswagen Renault/Nissan General Motors

6.6% 3.6%

11.0%

Toyota Mahindra & Mahindra Ford

7.2% 4.6% 10.6% 6.7% 5.9% 11.0%

Tata Hyundai

7.4% 6.5%...