Bsop 330 Course Project

Case Study (Southwestern University)

1. Develop a forecasting model justifying its selection over other techniques and project attendance through 2007.

The historical attendance data shows a continuous increase over the past several years. Using the available historical data, I compared three different techniques, moving average, naive and trend analysis to select the best technique to forecast attendance for 2006 and 2007. The first technique used was a moving average model that showed a decline in attendance for year 2006 and 2007. The second choice was the naive forecast that assumes the demand in the next period is equal to the demand in the most recent period. This type of forecast didn’t indicate any increases in attendance, which was not representative any of the previous year’s actual attendances.The last approach used was trend projections and this technique was representative of historical attendance indicating the lowest MAPE of the three choices, so this is the technique chosen for these forecasts. I have created a table to show the actual and forecasted attendances for 2006 & 2007 after using trend forecasting analysis.

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| | | | Forecasts and Error Analysis | | |

Period | Demand (y) | Period (x) | | Forecast | Error | Absolute | Squared | Abs Pct Err |

2000 | 180400.00 | 1 | | 172,780.95 | 7,619.05 | 7,619.05 | 58,049,886.62 | 04.22% |

2001 | 177500.00 | 2 | | 183,775.24 | (6,275.24) | 6,275.24 | 39,378,613.15 | 03.54% |

2002 | 189500.00 | 3 | | 194,769.52 | (5,269.52) | 5,269.52 | 27,767,881.18 | 02.78% |

2003 | 205900.00 | 4 | | 205,763.81 | 136.19 | 136.19 | 18,547.85 | 00.07% |

2004 | 219300.00 | 5 | | 216,758.10 | 2,541.90 | 2,541.90 | 6,461,279.82 | 01.16% |

2005 | 229000.00 | 6 | |...