Challenges of Japan Population Ages and Eventually Shrinks.

Population ages and eventually shrinks

Japan's population began falling in 2004 and is now ageing faster than any other on the planet. More than 22% of Japanese are already 65 or older. A report compiled with the government’s co-operation two years ago warned that by 2060 the number of Japanese will have fallen from 127m to about 87m, of whom almost 40% will be 65 or older.

The government is pointedly not denying newspaper reports that ran earlier this month, claiming that it is considering a solution it has so far shunned: mass immigration. The reports say the figure being mooted is 200,000 foreigners a year. An advisory body to Shinzo Abe, the prime minister, said opening the immigration drawbridge to that number would help stabilise Japan’s population—at around 100m (from its current 126.7m).

http://www.economist.com/blogs/banyan/2014/03/japans-demography

According to the 2010 Population Census, which serves as the base year of these projections, the total population of Japan in that year was 128.06 million (total population including non-Japanese residents). Based on the results of the medium-fertility projection, Japan is expected to enter a long period of population decline. The population is expected to decrease to around 116.62 million by 2030, fall below 100 million to 99.13 million in 2048, and drop to 86.74 million by 2060

Government policy, especially in the health care sector, will play a critical role in how Japan handles the challenges of its aging society.

While it’s true that older people use three to four times more medical care than younger people, differences in the average age of the population among nations does not predict health care spending at all. For example, in 2000 Japan spent 7.8 percent of GDP on health care and the United States 13 percent, although 17.2 percent of the Japanese population was 65 and older, compared to 12.3 percent in the U.S. Other factors – particularly, how health care systems are organized – are far more...