Intelligence Report: Russia

SUMMARY

This report provides an overview of the capabilities and intentions of the Russian Federation towards the United States and attempts to provide an accurate assessment of Russia’s strengths and weaknesses including that of its military, infrastructure, geopolitical pressures, and economic outlook. The information collected in this report was derived from open-source material and expert analysis, as well as Russian-based news sources and blogs.

Due to Russia’s proclivity to secrecy and inherent distrust of foreign governments, it is difficult to extract information about its current state. In addition, most of Russia’s media is controlled by the state which makes non-biased information a challenge to find; therefore, this report relies heavily on Russian social media sites for Russian-based sources. Russia’s Levada polling unit estimates that more than 50% of Russians use the internet daily, up from less than 10% in 2006 (Russia After Putin). The information gathered from the social media sites has been cross-referenced with other media sources to verify its validity. Translations were provided by a fluent speaker of the Russian language and supported by Google Translate. The web addresses included in this report were current as of 2014.

1. GOVERNMENT ORGANIZATION

The Russian Federation is organized as a vertical structure, heavily reliant on the person at the apex, who in turn relies heavily on the competence of his subordinates. The vertical structure finds it difficult to adapt to changes outside the system such as fundamental shifts within Russia or global events (Russia After Putin).

The Federation’s heavy reliance on its President will cause succession problems. Historically, if a competent successor is not chosen, Russia’s clans will fight for position within the already fragile structure. This will create instability and chaos within the Russian state, and possibly, its collapse.

The strength of Russia’s political system is...