Scenario Forecasting

Scenario Forecasting   1  

Introduction I have lot of questions in my mind about my future: What will it be in 10 years from now? Will my retirement savings be more optimistic than what they are now? Will my kids get into the best colleges? Will I be healthy and happy with my job and at home? As Fost, D. & Edonston, B. (1998) mentioned “the right questions about the future may be more valuable than finding answers”. This statement made a real impact on me. I am not sure if I am even asking the right questions to myself. My mom always taught us to dream and never stop dreaming. She taught us to be honest, independent, and to have a vision about our future. Through her guidance, I learned that education has always been the key to this success. If my mom did not have that dream and ability to forecast, I am not sure if I would have had enough drive to work hard and achieve my goals.

There is no way to predict the future with accuracy. However, there is a way to create scenarios and forecast to see how the scenario might be in the future. I have the type of personality which always sees the glass half full. I believe in optimistic scenario forecasting.

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Next two Years in EMBA Program – Scenario Forecast

How do we forecast our future? Although there is a school of thought that palmistry or astronomy can predict one’s future, I think that is a funny and crude way of trying to know what is in hold for anyone in future. On a serious note, “Forecasts empower people because their use implies that we can modify variables now to alter (or be prepared for) the future. A prediction is an invitation to introduce change into a system.” (Walonick, D.S. 1993) My attempt is to forecast and find the variables that I can alter to see a greater future for myself and for my family.

While I am very excited about the EMBA program and my progress so far, an example of what the “icing on the cake” scenario would be was...