Decision Making

Unit 9:

The Effect of Expectations

Why the Mind Gets What It Expects

Suppose you're a fan of the Philadelphia Eagles and you're

watching a football game with a friend who, sadly, grew

up in New York City and is a rabid fan of the Giants.

The Eagles have possession and are down by five points

with no time-outs left. It's the fourth quarter, and six seconds

are left on the clock. The ball is on the 12-yard line. Four wide

receivers line up for the final play. The quarterback hikes the

ball and drops back in the pocket. As the receivers sprint toward

the end zone, the quarterback throws a high pass just as

the time runs out. An Eagles wide receiver near the corner of

the end zone dives for the ball and makes a spectacular catch.

The referee signals a touchdown and all the Eagles players

run onto the field in celebration. But wait. Did the receiver

get both of his feet in? It looks close on the Jumbotron; so the

booth calls down for a review. You turn to your friend: "Look

at that! What a great catch! He was totally in. Why are they

even reviewing it?" Your friend scowls. "That was completely

out! I can't believe the ref didn't see it! You must be crazy to

think that was in!"

What just happened? Was your friend the Giants fan just

experiencing wishful thinking? Was he deceiving himself?

Worse, was he lying? Or had his loyalty to his team—and his

anticipation of its win—completely, truly, and deeply clouded

his judgment?

How could two friends—two honest guys—see one soaring

pass in two different ways? In fact, how could any two parties

look at precisely the same event and interpret it as supporting

their opposing points of view? How could Democrats

and Republicans look at a single schoolchild who is unable to

read, and take such bitterly different positions on the same

issue? How could a couple embroiled in a fight see the causes

of their argument so differently?

It happens so frequently that we rarely stop to ask ourselves...