Should Opinion Polls on Election Be Banned?

Should opinion polls on election be banned?

From being in the news, opinion polls have become the news. The Congress, which is being routed in most opinion polls in recent times, wants the Election Commission to ban them. The party says opinion polls are plagued by poor methodologies, and do more to mislead than inform. 

Why are political parties getting so worked up about opinion polls?

There are two reasons. One, they tell voters about the national mood vis-a-vis parties. Two, they can be used to sway undecided voters, especially those who want to vote for the winner to ensure their vote doesn't go waste. For this reason, opinion polls are becoming a political weapon. Each party commissions and

releases findings that show it will win.

How is that done?

Opinion polls are sample surveys. In theory, a representative cross-section of the population has to be quizzed about their voting preferences. But, skew the sample such that you leave out the minorities, or the migrants, or the educated, and you will get theanswer you want.

What impact do opinion polls have on elections?

Hard to say. Right now, the country is seeing an avalanche of polls -- not only for states heading to polls in the next two months, but also for the national elections in the middle of 2014. A lot can happen between now and then to change voter minds. Also, given the ever-present temptation to manipulate findings and the multiplicity of polls, it is possible that they might just become background noise for the voter. Also, voters can change their voting preferences at the last minute. Especially with politicians doling out pre-election freebies. For this reason, exit polls are considered more reliable than opinion polls.

How are the two different?

The sample used in opinion polls comprises of people who may or may not eventually vote. In contrast, an exit poll is conducted after voting is over and comprises of only those people who have voted.

So, should opinion polls be banned?

Just...