Gambline with Probablility Theory

Gambling with Probability Theory

Liberal Arts Mathematics MA 1107

Professor Tess Creel

Gambling with Probability Theory

From its onset, probability theory has always been something of a gamble. The first-known references to probability theory come from 1654 correspondence between two French mathematicians, Pierre de Fermat and Blaise Pascal. The topic of their correspondence regarded a problem posed by Chevalier de Mere, a gambler and member of the aristocracy querying, “If the two players of a game are forced to quit before the game is finished, how should the pot be divided?” (Miller, Heeren, & Hornsby, 2012) Probability theory was again suggested and studied by Abraham de Moivre (1667-1754), a French/English-refugee, and the very thought of the implications in finalizing such a formula was frightening. A consequence of this theory, Monsieur de Moivre speculated, would be the absurdity of the concept of God. He expressed this fear by stating, “God, no doubt, represents the limit of mathematical absurdity, therefore of all absurdity.” (Saliu, n.a) Therefore, his work went virtually unnoticed for many years. Much later, the modern mathematical theory of probability came mainly from the Russian scholars P.L. Chebyshev, A.A. Markov, and Andrei Nikolaevich Kolmogorov (Miller, Heeren, & Hornsby, 2012). From humble beginnings, probability theory has developed into a modern mathematical theory with numerous applications, including genetics, proportions, science, everyday-life, and of course, gambling.

Making gambling less of a gamble, the use of the probability theory has fascinated wagering enthusiasts for years. The human mind is prone to discern patterns and does so quite proficiently. Many people who gamble believe that there is no such thing as a random event and that they can figure out how to win despite the odds that are against them. Technically, they are correct in that all random events are the result of physical forces or mathematical...