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2013

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR THE

NIGERIAN ECONOMY

(2013-2016)

NATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS

FEBRUARY 2013

Table of Contents

Foreword………………………………………………………………………………………..3

Executive Summary…………………………………………………………………………….4

Part I: A review of developments in 2012……………………………………………………...5

Introduction…………………………………………………………………………….5

Gross domestic product………………………………………………………………...5

Inflation………………………………………………………………………………...8

Value of total trade…………………………………………………………………….10

Imports…………………………………………………………………………………11

Exports…………………………………………………………………………………11

Part II: Macroeconomic projections for 2013-2016……………………………………………13

Overview of methodology……………………………………………………………...13

Real gross domestic product…………………………………………………………...13

Inflation rate……………………………………………………………………………14

Value of total trade……………………………………………………………………..15

Conclusion……………………………………………………………………………………...16

Appendix I: 2013-2016 projections…………………………………………………………….17

Appendix II: Macro-econometric Model for Projections………………………………………18

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FOREWORD

An economic projection is a means of scientific procedure that offers insights into the potential

trends in the key drivers of an economy. It enables responsive and responsible governments to monitor

performance and review course of actions in order to achieve macroeconomic goals. The need for

regular economic projections cannot be overemphasized in that they, inter alia, provide information

about the future and serve as a barometer for evaluating probable future outcomes of current policies and

programmes.

Evidenced-based policy making is gaining wide acceptance among policymakers, academics and

public commentators. It has been recognized that public policy decisions should be informed by careful

analysis using sound and transparent data. This concept of evidenced-based policy-making is broad

based in terms of scope and dimension. It involves the use of data and appropriate models to evaluate

issues of national...