Info

ISSN 1330-7142

UDK = 631.368

DECISION MAKING UNDER CONDITIONS

AGRICULTURE: A CASE STUDY OF OIL CROPS

OF

UNCERTAINTY

IN

Karmen Pažek, Č. Rozman

Original scientific paper

Izvorni znanstveni članak

SUMMARY

In decision under uncertainty individual decision makers (farmers) have to choose one of a set number of

alternatives with complete information about their outcomes but in the absence of any information or data

about the probabilities of the various state of nature. This paper examines a decision making under

uncertainty in agriculture. The classical approaches of Wald’s, Hurwicz’s, Maximax, Savage’s and Laplace’s

are discussed and compared in case study of oil pumpkin production and selling of pumpkin oil. The

computational complexity and usefulness of the criterion are further presented. The article is concluded with

aggregate the results of all observed criteria and business alternatives in the conditions of uncertainty, where

the business alternative 1 is suggested.

Key-words: uncertainty, Wald’s, Hurwicz’s, Maximax, Savage’s and Laplace’s criterion, decision support

system, agriculture

INTRODUCTION

Typically, personal and professional decisions can be made with some difficulty. Either the best

course of action is clear or the varieties of the decision are not significant enough to require a great

amount of attention. Occasionally, decisions arise where the path is not clear and it is necessary to

take substantial time and effort in devising a systematic method of analyzing the various courses of

action. With decisions under uncertainty, the decision maker should:

1. Take an inventory of all viable options available for gathering information, for experimentation

and for action

2. List all events that may occur

3. Arrange all pertinent information and choices/assumptions made

4. Rank the consequences resulting from the various courses of action

5. Determine the probability of an uncertain event occurring.

Upon systematically describing the problem and...