Why China Will Democratize?

Why China Will Democratize?

Fundamental political transformation is taking place in China.

* Fall of 2012 large group launched vocal campaign to compete for seats in various local congresses

* “netizens” tried to visit human right activist under house arrest, despite repeated reports that visitors are being beaten

* criticism because of train crash in 2011

Economic development leads to democratization.

Optimism about China being democratic stems from 4 mega-trends:

1. economic development

2. cultural change

3. political leadership trends

4. global environment

Two economic factors that matter most for the democratization: 1. Level of development 2. Level of inequality

Economic Development Trends

In china the economy is growing rapidly, so either it will help CCP to keep the power or the CCP will become a victim of its own success.

The performance Legitimacy Thesis

International experience denies performance legitimacy since democratization took place in many economically developed countries including Brazil, Taiwan, Greece, SK, Spain.

27 out of 31 democratized countries in the “third wave” were in the middle-income range.

1st challenge is the fact that reaching the same PPP as China does all of the countries including Taiwan and Soviet Union became democtratic. Is china an exceptional country will be seen only in 2020.

2nd challenge of performance legitimacy is the gap between people’s expectations and the means of government to co-opt society. Younger chinese are not comparing their living standarts with before the cultural revolution, so they don’t appreciate what conditions they have now. People now care about education, medical care and decent housing.

Government can meet increased welfare demand in 3 ways: print money, reduce waste, raise taxes. 1st option will cause inflation that already exists, the 2nd option is politically difficult because of the life that politicians in China are living, 3rd option is also...