Assessment of Future Exchange Rate Movements

As the chief financial officer of blades, Inc., Ben Holt is pleased that his current system of exporting “Speedos” to Thailand seems to be working well. Blades’ primary customer in Thailand, a retailer called Entertainment Products, has committed itself to purchasing a fixed number of Speedos annually for the next three years at a fixed price denominated in baht, Thailand’s currency. Furthermore, Blades is using a Thai supplier for some of the components needed to manufacture Speedos. Nevertheless, Holt is concerned about recent developments in Asia. Foreign investors from various countries had invested heavily in Thailand to take advantage of the high interest rates there. As a result of the weak economy in Thailand, however, many foreign investors have lost confidence in Thailand and have withdrawn their funds.

Ben Holt has two major concerns regarding these developments. First, he is wondering how these changes in Thailand’s economy could affect the value of the Thai baht and, consequently, Blades. More specifically, he is wondering whether the effects on the Thai baht may affect Blades even though its primary Thai customer is committed to Blades over the next three years.

Second, Holt believes that Blades may be able to speculate on the anticipated movement of the baht, but he is uncertain about the procedure needed to accomplish this. To facilitate Holt’s understanding of exchange rate speculation, he has asked you, Blades’ financial analyst, to provide him with detailed illustrations of two scenarios. In the first, the baht would move from a current level of $0.022 to $0.020 within the next 30 days. Under the second scenario, the baht would move from its current level to $0.025 within the next 30 days.

Based on Holt’s needs, he has provided you with the following list of questions to be answered:

How are percentage changes in a currency’s value measured? Illustrate your