United Kingdom: Market Enters Consolidation Phase with Healthy Trends Across Fixed, Pay-Tv and Mobile Services

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In 2015, UK will be the largest telecom services market in Western Europe and will grow at a 1.0% CAGR from 2015-2020 in local currency to reach $52.4bn (£35.7bn) in 2020. More than 80% of the revenue growth between 2015 and 2020 will come from fixed and pay-TV services, while mobile services will grow slowly due to the EU roaming impact and the possible negative effect of fixed-mobile convergence on mobile revenue. Competition in the UK telecom market is set to intensify as operators look to extend their portfolio to remain competitive in a fixed and mobile convergence market. The ongoing consolidation and possible regulatory remedies will change competitive dynamics over the next few years and will likely reinforce a household-centric proposition.

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Key Findings

The UK telecom market will generate total service revenue of $51.8bn (£34.0bn) in 2015, a -0.4% decline in local currency from the previous year.

Pyramid Research expects total service revenue to grow at a 1.0% CAGR from 2015-2020 in local currency (0.2% CAGR in US$). The positive impact of fixed broadband network upgrades on ARPS, the growth of LTE beyond the early-adopter status and in-market consolidation will likely compensate the negative impact of fixed-mobile convergence (FMC) on revenue.

The growing adoption of LTE services and the migration of voice services to VoLTE will contribute to growing data usage, mitigating losses in mobile voice revenue.

Broadband customers will benefit from higher speeds as operators are investing heavily in faster networks to achieve the government’s target of providing superfast broadband to 95% of premises by 2017.

Driven by operator’s...