Bus640

Year 0

Cost

in millions

Year 1

Probability

Year 1

Cash Flow

Year 1

Year 2

PV (DF= .926)Probability

Year 2

Cash Flow

Year 2

PV (DF= .857)

P= .1

$50

$42.85

P= .3

$40

$34.28

P= .4

$30

$25.71

P= .1

$60

$51.42

P= .2

$50

$42.85

P= .3

$40

$34.28

P= .4

$30

$25.71

P= .1

$60

$51.42

P= .2

$50

$51.42

P= .2

P= .2

$60

$50

$42.85

$46.30

-$80

P= .3

P= .4

$40

$30

$37.04

$27.78

P= .3

$30

$25.71

P= .1

$60

$51.42

P= .2

$20

$34.28

P= .4

P= .1

$40

$50

$42.85

P= .3

$40

$34.28

P= .4

$30

$25.71

$18.52

Year 3

Probability

P= .3

P= .4

P= .1

P= .2

P= .3

P= .4

P= .1

P= .2

P= .3

P= .4

P= .1

P= .2

P= .3

P= .4

P= .1

P= .2

P= .3

P= .4

P= .1

P= .2

P= .3

P= .4

P= .1

P= .2

P= .3

P= .4

P= .1

P= .2

P= .3

P= .4

P= .1

P= .2

P= .3

P= .4

P= .1

P= .2

P= .3

P= .4

P= .1

P= .2

Year 3

Year 3

Cash Flow PV (DF= .794)

$70

$55.58

$60

$47.64

$50

$39.70

$40

$31.76

$70

$55.58

$60

$47.64

$50

$39.70

$40

$31.76

$70

$55.58

$60

$47.64

$50

$39.70

$40

$31.76

$70

$55.58

$60

$47.64

$50

$39.70

$40

$31.76

$70

$55.58

$60

$47.64

$50

$39.70

$40

$31.76

$70

$55.58

$60

$47.64

$50

$39.70

$40

$31.76

$70

$55.58

$60

$47.64

$50

$39.70

$40

$31.76

$70

$55.58

$60

$47.64

$50

$39.70

$40

$31.76

$70

$55.58

$60

$47.64

$50

$39.70

$40

$31.76

$70

$55.58

$60

$47.64

$50

$39.70

$40

$31.76

NPV of profit Joint Probability

ENPV

$73.30

0.006

$439,800

$65.36

0.008

$522,880

$57.42

0.002

$114,840

$49.48

0.004

$197,920

$64.73

0.012

$776,760

$56.79

0.016

$910,240

$48.85

0.004

$195,400

$40.91

0.008

$327,280

$56.16

0.018 $1,010,880

$48.22

0.024 $1,157,280

$40.28

0.006

$241,680

$32.34

0.012

$388,080

$47.59

0.024 $1,142,160

$39.65

0.032 $1,268,800

$31.71

0.008

$253,680

$23.77

0.016

$380,320...