Regression Output

Campaign Finance:

Exploring What Factors Influence

the Amount of Money Candidates Raise

By Leah Devorak and Kaye Burnet

Econometrics

11/20/15

Research Paper Milestone 2

TOPIC

The topic of interest for the study is determining the influence of political affiliation and incumbency on the amount of money raised by candidates in the 2014 U.S. House of Representatives elections.

HYPOTHESES

Incumbency, meaning that the politician already holds the seat they are campaigning for, will have a significant positive influence on the amount of money the candidate is able to fundraise. Political party will not have a significant influence on the amount of money raised. Whether or not the candidate belongs to the same political party that their state supported in the 2012 presidential election will have a significant positive effect on the amount of money raised.

VARIABLES

Independent:

AmountRaised (in dollars) — the amount of money raised by each candidate

Dependent:

1) Incumbent (1 if yes, 0 if no) - whether or not the person was a member of the U.S. Congress in the previous election cycle

2) PoliticalParty (1 if Democrat, 0 if other) — the candidate’s political alignment

3) SameParty (1 if yes, 0 if no) — whether or not the candidate belongs to the same political party as their state’s vote in the last Presidential election. For example, is the person a Democrat in a “blue” state?

Rejected Variables:

Our original regression called for two additional variables: whether or not the candidate won the 2014 election and whether or not the candidate was the same party as the president. However, these two variables were eventually eliminated from the model. The first was removed because, in a regression analysis determining how the certain variables affect campaign contributions, whether or not a candidate won or lost is irrelevant; winning and losing happens after contributions occur, so it can clearly have no effect on campaign donations....