Managing Under Uncertanty

Assignment One: Observation Review

Managing Under Uncertainty: GSBS6001

Course Coordinator: Dr Paul Markham

Submitted by: Justin Peterkin

Student number: c3256177

Word count: 1609

Table of Contents

Decision Summary…………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 3

Rational Decision Making Analysis…………………………………………………………………………….. 4

Bounded Rational Decision Making Analysis……………………………………………………………… 6

References………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 8

Glossary…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 9

Decision Summary

This paper reviews the decision to change pillar dimension in LWA8 at Austar Coal Mine, Cessnock NSW, during the 2014 financial year. I am currently employed as a shift Undermanager at this mine.

Due to a reducing Longwall float and increasing pressure from corporate management to deliver on production budgets and time frames a process improvement decision was required. The Mine Manager with input from the Development Superintendent decided in an effort to reduce development driveage but still achieve the full extent of the Longwall block a change in pillar dimensions from current 100m centres to 150m centres would be beneficial.

The decision to increase pillar lengths was made by the Mine Manager in conjunction with the Mining Engineer, Ventilation Officer, Production Manager, and Longwall & Development Superintendents. It was determined that there were only 2 alternatives to solve the issue of negative longwall float, and intuition was used based on the Mine Managers prior experiences to determine that changing pillar dimensions (the decision) was the best alternative. A SWOT analysis of the decision process was completed to determine the factors that increased the risk of the Mine not achieving budget in contrasts to the opportunities that may be created and assist the Mine in achieving the business objective of providing the lowest cost per tonne coal mine.

For the process to work it would require an exemption to be granted...