Airline Industry

Forecastinctivity by Airport

This report provides guidance to individuals who prepare airport activity forecasts as well as to those who review the forecasts. The guidance covers the basic steps required for producing forecasts. In addition, the report contains two appendices that forecasters are encouraged to complete. Appendix B clarifies the presentation of the forecast levels, the forecast growth rates, and the operational factors. Appendix C compares the airport planning forecast and the Terminal Area Forecast. Completion of these appendices, which are available in excel format, will facilitate FAA review and approval of proposed forecasts.

Publication Date: July 2001

APO Contact: J. Peter LeBoff

E-mail: Peter.LeBoff@faa.gov

FORECASTING AVIATION ACTIVITY

BY AIRPORT

Prepared for:

Federal Aviation Administration

Office of Aviation Policy and Plans

Statistics and Forecast Branch (APO-110)

Washington, DC

Prepared by:

GRA, Incorporated

July 2001

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Introduction 1

Applicability of Document 2

Aviation Forecasting Background 3

Step 1: Identify Aviation Activity Parameters and Measures to Forecast 3

Step 2: Collect and Review Previous Airport Forecasts 5

Step 3: Gather Data 5

A. Determine Data Requirements 5

B. Identify Data Sources 6

Historical Aviation Data 6

Operations 6

Passengers 7

Based Aircraft 7

Fleet Mix 7

Peak Hour Activity 8

Specialized Databases 8

FAA Aviation Forecasts 8

The Terminal Area Forecast 8

Other FAA Forecasts 9

Socioeconomic Data 10

C. Collect and Evaluate Historical and Forecast Data 10

Step 4: Select Forecast Methods 11

A. Regression and Trend Analysis 11

B. Share Analysis 12

C. Other Techniques 13

Exponential Smoothing 13

Comparison with Other Airports 13

Survey Techniques 13

Cohort Analysis 13

Choice and Distribution Models 14...