Bus517 Example

Assignment #4 – Ducks Unlimited Keystone Conference

Risk Analysis Techniques

Project Managers understand every project comes with risk. Good planning can mitigate project risk, but risk can never be completely eliminated. Every project must include a risk analysis process. “Successful management of project risk gives the project manager better control over the future and can significantly improve chances of reaching project objectives on time, within budget, and meeting required technical (functional) performance” (Gray & Larson, 2008, p. 199).

Risk management involves a four step process: risk identification, risk assessment, risk response development, and risk response control. Risk analysis involves identifying the most probable threats to an organization and analyzing the related vulnerabilities of the organization to these threats. The most common techniques for risk analysis are the brainstorming method, scenario analysis, sensitivity analysis, and probability analysis. Each of these techniques are used in conjunction of one another, therefore we’ll be using all four techniques for this project.

Brainstorming involves team members creatively identifying potential problems. Everyone should be encouraged to present all ideas that may affect the project. The success of this method lies in the team refraining from criticizing each other. The intent is to encourage as many ideas as possible, which may in turn, trigger the ideas of others.

Scenario analysis builds on the brainstorming method and incorporates both the sensitivity and probability analyses. After brainstorming potential risks, the team must evaluate the likelihood and impact of the risks identified. The intent of this analysis is to determine which risks deserve attention.

A sensitivity analysis places a value on a variable within the project by analyzing the effect that variable may have on the project plan. Some advantages of a sensitivity analysis include impressing...