Marriot Case

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Date Submitted: 12/26/2011 08:10 PM

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Forecasting Room at Marriott Hotel

Tina Nugraheni – M9921806

1. Brief Case Summary:

Reservation manager in a downtown Marriot Hotel faced a dilemma in accepting a group travel or not, the case started when the hotel with capacity 1877 rooms had the reservation for 1839 rooms for one day, which meant availability for 38 rooms.

The hotel also had another risk of high ‘no show’ rates on the weekends, and contribution of the margin for each room was about 90$. Also if the booked- costumers got no available room in the hotel, there would be another consequence, where the front desk had to find a comparable room in city and transport the guest there, which was of course it costs to the hotel. If the costumers had Marquis membership card, the costumers would get the 200$cash back and free stay for the next two stays, which were of course that considered as cost and effect in forecast at any little possible effect.

To make the forecast, the reservation manager, had the historical data of the last 13 weeks with the real demand on each day, also included the number of rooms booked as of the Tuesday morning of the week prior to each date. Additionally there is a calculation for pick up ration between a Tuesday one week ahead, and any date

Now she needs to use all the information she can decide whether accept the tour reservation of 60 or not.

2. Forecasting recommendation for the next week

* Limitation and assumption applied in this case are:

1. No major holiday or special event occurring on the forecast time, because of course the presence of the event will ruin the forecast

2. No other inventories for guest and all of rooms are available to be rent (no renovation)

3. No charge for customer that failed to show up when they’re reserve for 1 night.

* Summary of Saturday demand is 21,078

* Analysis:

1. De-seasonal the pickup ratio by divided it with DOW index, we can use the average or either the minitab with no...