Exotic Adventures Inc

Executive Summary

Exotic Adventures Inc. (EAI) has been faced with the challenge of making three decisions, which could have a negative effect on their costs and the safety of the passengers on the voyage. The company needs to decide whether they should cancel the trip on October 8, cancel the trip in Manaus, or turn back before Iquitos. The company has been advised that the water levels are too low for the voyage and the trip should be postponed. EAI has received inconsistent information from agents in Peru and Brazil, which does not help in making the final decision. The method of analysis used to make the decision is the Precision Tree software. From the results given, the company should continue on with the trip.

Background

Exotic Adventures Inc. (EAI) specializes in providing expedition style journeys to people throughout certain regions of the world. These regions include the Arctic and Antarctica. In March of 1997, EAI operated its first Amazon voyage, “offering one voyage upriver and a return voyage downstream” (Shaw, 1999). The Amazon voyages navigated the full length of the river, which was starting at Belem, Brazil and ending in Iquitos, Peru. The voyages resulted in success; however critics stated that the expedition could be more exciting in October. This was due to the fact that water levels were low in October, which caused more of the wildlife to be closer to the river’s edge (which would be a touristic hit).

A successful voyage in the Amazon River is dependent on two factors: weather condition and water levels. In early September, the company was informed about unusually water levels due to El Nino, which could have an adverse effect on the voyage. Brazilian officials stated, “That water levels between Manaus and Iquitos were fluctuating between 12 and 14 feet, not enough depth for the vessel to safely navigate” (Shaw, 1999). However, Peruvian agents were advising EAI that there were vessels that were operating in low water levels and...