The Research on Investment Risk Management of Longtan Hydropower Project

Available online at www.sciencedirect.com

Systems Engineering Procedia 00 (2011) 000–000

Systems Engineering Procedia

www.elsevier.com/locate/procedia

Systems Engineering Procedia 4 (2012) 268 – 274

The 2nd International Conference on Complexity Science & Information Engineering

Transmission Model of Risk Breakdown Structure in Engineering Project-Chain based on Entropy Risk Element

Wenjun CHEN *, Cunbin LI,Yang YANG, Zhe DU

North China Electric Power University, Beijing,102206, China

Abstract Project-chain describes the complex relationship between associative projects in engineering. Risk management in engineering project-chain is more difficult than in single engineering. Based on the resource sharing relationship between projects, the risks transferring fluctuation to the final goal are defined as risk elements, and the quantitative mathematical expressions of risk elements are also given. Based on the analogy with work breakdown structure (WBS), the model of risk breakdown structure is proposed. By using moment function to calculate the value characteristics, the final risk degree of project-chain is calculated. Finally, the model is applied in a funds allocation case.

© 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and peer-review under responsibility of Desheng Dash Wu Wu. © 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and peer-review under responsibility of Desheng Dash

Keywords: entropy risk element; risk breakdown structure; risk transmission; engineering project-chain

1. Introduction Risk management plays an important role in engineering project management and the transmission effect widely exists in projects. Many scholars did a lot of research on risk management, Li [1-3] considered the transmission effect in generalized projects and proposed the risk elements transmission theory. The theory gave the quantitative study on risk elements and paid more attention on calculating the final risk elements probability distribution. However,...