Econometrics

Divorce Rate and its Determinants

Anisa Kosta

Dinesh Vatani

Hypothesis: The Divorce Rate is dependent on Education, Income, Religion and the existence of No-Fault Divorce Laws.

According to divorce statistics, the divorce rate in the United States for first marriage is between 45-50%, for second marriage about 65%, and for third marriage about 70%. Divorce in the United States seems like an unavoidable phenomenon, however it possible that some individuals/groups are more prone to divorce than others. This paper will analyze different variables, in search for correlation between these variables (explanatory variables) and divorce rates (depended variable). Although there are a myriad of factors that play a role in the divorce rates, only four explanatory variables were selected for this paper, based on theoretical relevance and data availability.

Table 1: Variables (by US state) and their expected effects

Variable(s) | Definition(s) | Expected Effect(s) |

DIV (D) | The number of divorces, per 1,000 population | |

EDU (E) | Percentage population, age 25+, with a bachelor’s degree or higher | Negative |

INC (E) | Median Household Income (in current dollars) | Ambiguous |

REL (E) | The combined percentage of Christian and Jewish adherents | Negative |

LAW (E) | The no. of years since the No-Fault Divorce Laws were enacted | Positive |

Divorce Rate (DIV) variable is measured by the number of divorces, per 1,000 population, by state. This is the depended variable, which we will attempt to explain in relation to the below listed explanatory variables.

Education (EDU) variable is measured by the percentage of population, by state, age 25+, with a bachelor’s degree, or higher. It is expected that the effect on divorce rates would be negative as highly educated individuals would most likely take more time to examine all the costs and benefits of getting married and getting divorced, when compared to less educated individuals....