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Date Submitted: 08/12/2012 04:04 AM
UNIT 2 DEMAND AND SUPPLY FORECASTING:
METHODS AND TECHNIQUES
Structure
Objectives
Introduction
Manpower Forecasts; Issues and Objectives
L2.1 Conceptual Issues
2.2.2 Objectives of Manpower Forecasts
Types of Manpower Forecasts; Micro and Macro Forecasting
Macro Forecasting
Micro Forecasting
Manpower Forecasting Techniques
Manpower Supply Forecasting
Supply Forecasting Techniques
Database for Manpower Forecasting
Let Us Sum Up
Clues to Answers
2.0 OBJECTIVES
After reading this Unit, you should be able to understand the:
need for forecasting manpower demand and supply in hospitality industry,
types of forecasts for manpower demand and supply,
methodologies of manpower demand and supply forecasting at the maoro and micro
levels, and
database required for manpower demand and supply forecasting at the macro and
micro levels.
2.1
INTRODUCTION
In spite of the universally accepted idea that a tourist not just buys the tourism product
but also in a way buys the service skills and qualities of a wide range of humans working
in hotels and other allied fields and in return who would contribute to the total holiday
experience of tourists, 111 many countries, we see that the growth and development of
tourism is adversely affected either due to lack of trained human resources or poor
quality in service arid so on. The reasons for this is rightly assessed by Tom Baum
(1993) who has pointed out that there is a "tendency to develop human resource
policies, initiatives and remedial programmes that are reactive to what is currently
happening rather than proactive to what is likely to occur." He further stresses that,
"as a general axiom, effective human resource strategies require considerable lead
time in order to support tourism development and, ideally, should be in place well
before the bulldozers and diggers move in".
This brings to fore the issue of manpower forecasting of both demand as well as supply.
In this Unit we will discuss...