Submitted by: Submitted by sandy11
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Pages: 4
Category: Business and Industry
Date Submitted: 08/13/2012 08:47 AM
FORECASTING
How does it affect you?
Strayer University
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What is a Forecast?
A Forecast is a prediction of what will occur in the future, as stated by Taylor (2011). Everyday life consist of people making personal and business decisions that will affect our future without knowing all variables for the situations. These decisions can be made individually or as a group.
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Informational Forecasts that Affect Our Decisions in Life
Car sales – Nissan/Honda/BMW Harvest of crops – corn/wheat/fruit Investment growth or decline (stock market) – Dow/Facebook/ Apple Future job opportunities – Compliance/Health/Teachers New technology – IPAD/E-reader/Tablets New Product Development – Upgraded or a newly established design of an item. Housing Rates – 3.25% thru 9.28%
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SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Sales Volume GM Ford Toyota Chrysler Honda Nissan Industry
May-12 Forecast 246,321 222,712 205,391 164,083 135,908 97,545 1,391,163
11-May 221,192 191,537 108,387 115,363 90,773 76,148 1,061,132
12-Apr 213,387 179,658 178,044 141,165 122,012 71,329 1,184,027
Change from Change from May 2011* Apr 2012 11.40% 15.40% 16.30% 24.00% 89.50% 15.40% 42.20% 16.20% 49.70% 11.40% 28.10% 36.80% 31.10% 17.50%
Reference: Edmunds.com May Auto Sales Forecast: Steady Pace Continues as Summer Approaches Published: 05/24/2012 (http://www.edmunds.com/about/press/edmundscom-may-auto-sales-forecaststeady-pace-continues-as-summer-approaches.html)
The autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) is a type of forecast used for vehicles with sufficient history, otherwise smoothing methods may be used. In either case , human interaction is necessary to ensure thorough analysis and forecasting.
http://www.businessmonitor.com/BM4/help/methodology_autos.html
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Fruit & Nut Forecast
Farmers, restaurant owners and consumers can analyze this data based on grower-reported average yields, objective-measurement modeled yields, historical differences...