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The Next China

GLBL 318, INRL574, EAST338, ECON338, MGT911

Fall 2012

Monday and Wednesday: 10:30 to 11:20

Stephen S. Roach

stephen.roach@yale.edu

250 Rosenkranz Hall

Office hours: MW 1 to 2:30 & by appt.

Born out of necessity in the post-Cultural Revolution chaos of the late 1970s, modern China is about reforms, opening up, and transition. Notwithstanding the extraordinary accomplishments that have since ensued, both external and internal pressures suggest that the miracle of the past 33 years is not sustainable unless the Chinese economy undergoes a major structural transformation. The Next China will be driven by a daunting transition from an export- and investment-led development model to a pro-consumption growth dynamic. Lingering post-crisis aftershocks in the developed world suggest this transition will need to occur sooner rather than later. China's new model could unmask a dual identity crisis -- underscored by its need to embrace political reform and the West's long-standing misperceptions about China.

Grades will be determined as follows:

Paper (30%): A forward-looking assessment of “A Building Block for the Next China” (10 to 15 pp for undergraduates; 15 to 20 pp for graduate students; due December 11)

Final Exam (30%: Take-home due December 18)

Mid-term Exam (20%: October 8)

Paper proposal (10%: 2-3 pages plus references due October 31)

Discussion section contribution (10%)

A basic undergraduate course in macroeconomics (Econ 111b, 116a, or 116b) is the only pre-requisite for this course.

() Texts Required for Purchase or online access

Economy, Elizabeth, The River Runs Black (Cornell University Press 2010)

Hu, Angang, China in 2020: A New Type of Superpower (Brookings 2011)

Kissinger, Henry, On China (Penguin Press 2011)

Lardy, Nicholas, Sustaining China’s Economic Growth After the Global Financial Crisis, (Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2012)

Roach, Stephen, The Next Asia (Wiley...