Economics Forecasting

CHAPTER 1

An Overview and Basic Considerations of Forecasting

1.1. The demand and supply of forecasting skills Econometricians with strong forecasting skills are always in great demand. In 2006, the Economist Intelligence Unit advertise for an econometrician (based Beijing). Here are what they expect the person to be able to do. £ Forecasting methodology: Develop and maintain the forecasting methodology to ensure the accuracy, reliability and consistency of the economic forecasts. £ Econometric modeling: Support the technical framework and run the models on a regular basis to meet publishing deadlines. Ensure that the output integrates with other editorial systems. £ Economic data: Protect and enhance the quality of the economic data used within the models and published. This will involve running regular checks on the data to maintain accuracy, reliability and consistency. £ Data suppliers: Work closely with data suppliers to make sure the economic data are updated accurately and in a timely fashion. Monitor changes in external data sources and work closely with suppliers to enhance the quality of EIU data. £ Team work: Work closely with the China editorial team to help them write up the forecasts. The forecasts will be sense-checked by other editors within the team and any issues raised during the sense check must be responded to. Actively join in discussions on the implications of the EIU global assumptions and events impacting on the region. Participate in the development of consensus views for the region. Co-operate with colleagues covering the same countries to ensure consistency between reports. £ Client relationships: Present the forecast results in non-technical language to clients and respond to client queries in relation to published data and bespoke forecasts undertaken for clients. Of course, to qualify for this post, the applicant should have £ Education and training: Masters or PhD in Econometrics/Economics (with large weight in econometrics). £...