Analysis

Statistics

November 27, 2012

After skimming over this case study, I initially thought this was all luck. But after I

reading it a few times, I discovered that probability is a huge player in game shows. As

matter of fact, I decided to begin my research a game show or two. Unlike when I was

younger, game shows are not as popular and therefore they are not as prevalent on

television. But low and behold “Let’s Make A Deal” is still shown on a daily basis and

provided me with some excellent insight.

According to the study, Teaching Probability and Statistics through Game Shows by

Matthew A. Carlton and Martha V. Mortlock, “the mathematical branch of probability

has its origins in games and gambling.” Game shows like the Let’s Make a Deal have

been around for decades, but many people believe it is all based on luck. Based on this

premise I put together a game for my family to play during the Thanksgiving Holiday. It

was similar to Let’s Make a Deal and so there was three options to choose from. I acted

the host to prove the probability point. After several rounds, I explained to the

“contestants” that I had purposely shown them the “goat” each time before asking them

to switch. I must admit, the majority did not understand the concept, but for some it

made the game more interesting.

We found that after being shown the “goat” and offered a chance to switch our

choice, it was in our favor to switch. This greatly increased our chances of winning

and therefore, probability also increased. On the game show called The Price is Right,

there is a game where the ball is placed under one of three different cups. The host, Drew

Carey stayed true to form and displayed the cup that did not have the ball. He then

offered the contestant an opportunity to switch, and she declined (going totally against

the audiences advice). She lost!

Although the case...