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EF5063 Professional Seminar Report
(Interim)
The impact of the demographic structural tendency on investments in China
Student Name: ZHONG Xiaohu
Student ID Number: 52689853
Program: MSc of Financial Engineering
Date of the Lecture: 03, November, 2012
Speaker of the Lecture: Alex Lee (Managing Director, Phoenix Capital Asia Limited)
Lecture topic: How the demographic trends help to shape the investment landscape
Part I: Summary of the presentation from Alex Lee (Phoenix Capital)
i. Demographic statistics
Mr. Alex Lee introduced the historical statistics of demography in different regions firstly for both emerging and developed, including Hong Kong, United States, Japan, Germany, Euro Area and China. He said the generation of baby boomers is aging fast.
ii. Relationship between the demography and economics growth
Date back to 1964; baby boomers took 41% the proportion of the total population of US. This generation is the backbone and key for the economic explosion after the World War II. However, although the population is increasing, the labor supply market was demanding also; therefore, more women went to work instead of being housewives. As a result, the families raised fewer children in average than before. In the other hand, this generation were well-educated and their income are better than average than any other generation. Many of them are leaders in different area and hold considerable in equities, properties and valuable assets.
The graph above is the US GDP growth. From this graph, we could see the peak appeared in 1982-1984 suddenly, this is because that generation is involving the workforce market. However, the current situation is that the population is decreasing in Euro Area and the baby boomer are aging (baby boomer time bomb).
In summary, the influence of the decreasing demographics on the economics includes four in four aspects:
A. The number of workers could not satisfy the demand of the manpower.
B. The...