Behavioral Mode-Choice Modeling

BEHAVIORAL MODE-CHOICE MODELING

WITH STATED CHOICE SETS FOR

AUMRA TRIPS

Hasan M. Al-Ahmadi, Gökmen Ergün

ABSTRACT

Aumra trips are religious trips made throughout the year to the holy cities of Saudi Arabia. There are 3-4 million such intercity trips during the year and understanding how individuals select a travel mode is of considerable importance.

This study aims at modeling the mode-choice behavior of aumra travellers by incorporating stated choice sets into the modeling structure. The data needed for the study was collected from all major cities throughout Saudi Arabia. The data also included a question from which stated choice sets for each traveller was obtained.

To investigate the feasibility of incorporating stated choices, models were calibrated first with the universal choice set, then with a "deterministic choice set" and finally using the "stated choice sets". Although the improvement over the deterministic choice model was marginal, the tests performed indicated that the model built using the stated choice set was the best in explaining the tripmaker behavior.

1. INTRODUCTION

There are two types of Islamic religious trips which generate significant intercity and international travel to and within Saudi Arabia. The first is the Hajj, which is the annual pilgrimage to the holy city of Makkah and performed between the 8th and 14th of the Hijri month of Dhul-Hijjah.

The second type of religious trip, Aumra, is again made for the purpose of visiting the holy city of Makkah, and although there are certain preferred visiting times, in general, aumra trips can be made throughout the year.

Aumra trips make up 19 percent of total intercity trips during school vacations in Saudi Arabia [1] amounting to approximately 3-4 million trips a year within Saudi Arabia alone. In addition to the significance of the amount of this travel, these trips can be expected to have trip characteristics which may create special...