Air Traffic Movement in the Philippines

AIR TRAFFIC MOVEMENT IN THE PHILIPPINES

INTRODUCTION

Airports are vital national resources. They serve a key role in transportation of people and goods and in regional and international commerce. They are where the nation’s aviation system connects with other modes of transportation.

The forecast of air passenger flow plays an important role in the management of airline.

The majority of airport and regional aviation activity studies use fairly simple methods to produce forecasts, and address forecast uncertainty only in informal and nonsystematic ways. Data availability, particularly reliable time series for historical aviation activity, often dictates what forecasting techniques can be employed. In general, the level of sophistication depends on a variety of factors, including data availability, intended use of the forecast, and the level and types of activity at the airport.

BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

There are four forecasting methods that can be considered, these are:

• Market share forecasting—local activity calculated as a share of some larger aggregate forecast.

• Econometric model forecasting—aviation activity tied to other economic measures.

• Time series model forecasting—trend extrapolation of existing activity.

• Simulation—a separate method used to provide high fidelity “snapshot” estimates of how traffic flows across a network or through an airport.

This study will focus on the Time series mathematical model.

This method involves extrapolation of existing historical activity data without utilizing independent explanatory variables. Simply put, the past trends are projected forward.

OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

The objectives of the study are:

1. To determine the relationship between passenger flow, aircraft movement and cargo to year.

2. To forecast passenger flow within the next 6 years, which is until 2015, using simple linear regression and time series statistical analysis.

DATA AND METHODOLOGY

Data is obtained from the Civil Aviation...